Merkel stepping down may become turning point in Germany

The step down of Angela Merkel will become a political turning point in Germany. Merkel has welcomed around one million migrants to Germany since 2015. Her humanitarian commitment was merciful. Now Merkel’s party CDU will shift right – closer to AFD.

Today, chancellor Angela Merkel said she would not seek re-election as chairwoman of her Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in December. She also said she would not stand again as chancellor candidate, nor as a candidate for the Federal parliament Bundestag, and she would not seek any further political offices.

Merkels stepping down marks a turning point in German politics. Her decision becomes the beginning of a new political era in Germany after Merkel will have served as a chairwoman of the Christian Democrats for 18 years and as a chancellor of Germany for 16 years.

Yesterday, the CDU and its Federal coalition partner Social Democrats (SPD) lost around 23 points at the Hesse State elections compared with the last Hesse vote in 2013. The Social Democrats suffered a historical drop, claiming 19.8 percent of the vote — the party’s worst result in Hesse since 1946. Merkel’s Federal ally Christian Social Union (CSU) suffered its worst election result since 1950 at Bavaria State elections two weeks ago.

Merkel’s CDU, her ally CSU and her coalition partner SPD are now all considered to become major parties in transition. Germany’s party system is under way to become more influenced by minor parties. The Greens, the Liberals, the Left and the Right will become more important.

Today, the anti-migration and anti-Islam political party Alternative for Germany (AFD) has 188 lawmakers in the German State assemblies, 94 lawmakers in the Bundestag and seven lawmakers in the European Parliament. In conclusion, the AFD has 289 lawmakers elected by the people of Germany. This is a massive political shift to the far-right in Germany.

I have admired Merkel for her open borders policy. In 2015, Germany accepted around one million refugees during what Merkel described as ‘extraordinary’ circumstances. Merkel said refugees would be welcomed and she was highly respected by foreign states for her humanitarian commitment.

Merkel was often called „the mother of the nation“ in Germany. I am calling Merkel the mother of refugees. This humanitarian commitment would not have happened without Merkel and her decision to open the borders..

Mr Friedrich Merz is seeking election as CDU party chair in December. Since 2016, Mr Merz is the Chairman of the Supervisory Board of BlackRock Germany.

CSU party chairman Horst Seehofer has always been the political opponent against Merkel’s open borders policy.

AFD party chairman Alexander Gauland said that Chancellor Merkel’s misguided refugee policy would be a gift to the AfD.

In my eyes, the combination of a Seehofer-led CSU, a Gauland-led AFD and a supposed Merz-led CDU is not a good assumption for migrants in Germany because they do not have a strong political party that protects them. If AFD would rule Germany in a coalition with the conservative parties CDU and CSU, then migrants will most probably If AFD would rule Germany in a coalition with the conservative parties CDU and CSU, then migrants will most probably suffer a setback.

Around 20 million migrants live in Germany. Around five million of them are Muslims. No Muslim or Migrant party has a lawmaker in a parliament wether on State level nor on Federal level nor on European level. When Merkel leaves office, it is the right time for the first lawmaker of a Muslim or Migrant party to advocate minority rights in Germany.

„Your native country is waiting“ says this T-Shirt

Bavaria election marks crisis of major parties

It is a further erosion of Germany’s political mainstream. Former major party SPD got only 9,7 % of the votes. CSU suffered their worst election result since 1950 and is now considered to be a major party in transition.

This election indeed marks a crisis of major parties. Minor parties as the Greens (17,5 %) and Free Voters (11,6 %) are benefiting from the crisis of major parties.

Free Voters have won votes where CSU has lost them. Free Voters are strong in the countryside. They were established in communities and villages as secessions of the CSU. Free Voters became CSU’s most likely coalition party.

The outcome of Bavaria state elections shows a trend for Germany. Germany’s whole party system is under way to become more influenced by minor parties.

Bavaria election is also a further shift to the far-right. The far-right is pleased about 21,8 % as both right-wing parties Free Voters got and AFD of the votes.

AFD (10,2 %) is now in 16 of 17 assemblies on Federal and on State level. In two weeks the State election of Hesse will take place. ADF will have entered all 17 assemblies on Federal and State level.

Economically the outcome will not affect Turkey because both Bavaria and Germany are still interested in growing trade relations and direct investments between the countries.

But refugee politics in Germany might become more difficult because AFD and Free Voters are both for restrictions against migration.

Also religions and foreigners politics may become more difficult because AFD wants to restrict the rights of Muslims in Bavaria state as well as in whole Germany.

Merkel’s position is considerably weakened by the outcome of this election. Voters had lost trust in both Bavarian State government and in Merkel’s federal government.

Bavaria election raising tensions in Berlin. 1) The outcome will stoke infighting in the faction of the conservative parties at Federal Parliament „Bundestag“. 2) The outcome will stoke infighting within the governmental coalition of the Christian Unions and the Social Democrats.

How did the Greens become successful in Bavaria?

The Greens are the big winner in Bavaria election. The Greens come second after CSU.

The Greens have started as left-wing oriented in the late 70s and 80s, they became more central oriented in the 90s and liberal in the late 90s. Now they are even partly conservative. In March 2011 (two weeks after the Fukushima nuclear disaster had begun), the Greens made large gains in the states of Rhineland-Palatinate and in Baden-Württemberg. In Baden-Württemberg they became the senior partner in a governing coalition for the first time. Since 2011, Winfried Kretschmann is the first Green to serve as Minister-President of a German State. The Greens of Bavaria are mostly central oriented.

At the ballot box in Bavaria,

1) the Greens were benefiting from urbanization. 1.5 million Germans moved to Bavaria from other states in the past ten years. In urban areas, the Greens got more than 30 % of the votes. In Bavaria, the first vote allows the elector to vote for a direct candidate who applies for a direct mandate in the assembly. For the first time, the Greens got five direct mandates in Munich.

2) the Greens were benefiting from their protest agains the new Bavarian police task act. In May, Bavaria’s state legislature passed a controversial law expanding police powers in Bavaria. Citizens now can be arrested for three months without the verdict of a judge. Greens attacked the bill as draconian and warned it could become a blueprint for expanded police powers across Germany. Greens were among the organizers of biggest Munich protest in years against this hard-line CSU police bill.

3) the Greens were benefiting from their ecologist campaigns against nuclear power energy and against impervious surfaces.